Iran and Nuclear Disarmament

Note: See my earlier op-ed that was submitted but not accepted, written when Israel attacked Iran.

7/1/25: Dropsite says nuclear centrifuges and other materials likely moved prior to attack.

6/30/25 See this about the UN director saying Iran could resume enrichment in a few months. Great job Trump and Netanyahu: we’ll be lucky if Iran doesn’t now decide to build a bomb. My take is their previous enrichment was a bargaining chip to try to have leverage for other goals including end of sanctions and so forth. Now there are reports of side meetings from the meeting of the Defense Ministers at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization that China may sell advanced fighter jets to Iran. Iran joined the SCO in 2023. “Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) is a Eurasian political, economic, international security and defence organization of ten member states. It was established in 2001 by the People's Republic of China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. In June 2017, it expanded to eight states, with India and Pakistan. Iran joined the group in July 2023, and Belarus in July 2024. Several countries are engaged as observers or dialogue partners.” Don’t forget, the Collective Security Treat Organization of post-Soviet states is a NATO like body and the risk of the US and Israeli bombing of Iran is that it could expand to include SCO nations alarmed by Trump’s recklessness.

It is the world's largest regional organization in terms of geographic scope and population, covering approximately 24% of the area of world (65% of Eurasia)^[4] and 42% of the world population. As of 2024, its combined nominal GDP accounts for around 23%, while its GDP based on PPP comprises approximately 36% of the world's total.

6/27/25: On steps to nuclear weapons in Iran.

6/23/2025: This from Marc Cooper is worthwhile.

6/22/2025: No More Wars was the spontaneous chant from the Anti-Oligarchy tour crowd when Bernie heard about he Iran attack. Here is the You Tube of that part of the rally. And here is the transcipt.

6/22/25: J Street/PIN statement. My not-published op-ed along with new post-US attack statement of concern.

6/21/25: Avrum Berg’s Letter to Congress.

6/20/2025: Support for the War Power Resolustions in Congress. The Senate Bill. The House Bill. NYTimes. Intercept piece. NBC on Left/Right Coalition on War Powers.

6/15/25: Eureka Street has a valuable piece here on deterence.

6/15/25: The US Peace Council’s latest statement is just one more example of how so-called “anti-imperialist” approaches have coopted the global peace movement.

6/14/25: CNN publishes everything you need to know about Iran’s nuclear program. I had not been following this as much as I should have since my 2015 oped. Don’t forget, the “deal” continued as far as the other signatories were concern, even after Trump left it and Biden did little to resume it. But read this story and Iran’s denials of any nuclear weapon intent fall flat. I’m working on another op-ed.

6/13/25: Axios reports on Israel’s attack on Iran. CNN reports Trump still urges a nuclear deal. UN IAEAdirector Rafael Grossi says Iran has not been complying with existing deal. On the other hand, Grossi also said under no circumstances should nuclear facilities be attacked. Also, Reuters reports he is read to travel to Iran to assess the situation. Grossi alleged 4 days ago Iran stole Israeli nuclear secrets, and unconfirmed reports I do not link to here due to their biased nature alleged that Iran plans to attack Israeli nuclear sites and condemn the IAEA, claiming it leaked locations and names of Iranian nuclear scientists to Israel.

Witkoff warned a massive Iranian attack could produce mass casualties in Israel. I have been warning of this repeatedly and publicly since last year, and have condemned US media and Netanyahu claims that that the Hezbollah and Iranian offensive missile and drone capacity has been “degraded” and I have seen no confirmation that this is the case. One exerpt after another including Barbara Slavin and Ilan Goldenberg—true prior to the previous Israeli attacks on Iran, which to my understanding attacked their missile defense, not their offensive capacity—would easily overwhelm Israel’s defensive capacity, and Witkoff confirmed this just now. Axios reports the US would likely assist in that defense as it and Jordan did before. But that was an attack of just several hundred missiles and drones, and not their most advanced weaponry. The US chicken hawks and Israeli warmongers are risking regional war and massive death and damage; these so-called friends of Israel must be opposed. On the other hand, Iran must avoid a massive counterattack and the US should continue to provide missile defense to Israel, in order to help avoid not only death and destruction in Israel but the likely regional war that would break out were Israel to suffer that level of casualties. For live AP updates, see here.

6/12/25: Drop Site News, in a video the other day, confirms what I said below about Iran’s capacity for a massive retaliation should Israel attack Iran. Yes, its own air and missile defenses were weakened in the previous exchange between Israel and Iran, but not its massive missile and drone capacity. It has revealed detailed knowledge of Israel’s nuclear power and weapons sites and apparently intends to attach them if Israel strikes first. Now, Newsweek also reports on Iran’s announcement it will attack Iran in response to any Israeli attack.

5/28/25: The NYTimes falsely stated, “And Israel has crippled Hezbollah and Hamas, which have been supported by Iranian money, arms and rockets. In dealing a blow to Hezbollah in particular, Israel removed the concern of the group threatening Israeli aircraft on their way to Iran and retaliating with missile attacks on Israel after any strike.” This goes beyond previous claims by Israel, parroted by the Times, that Israel “degraded” Hezbollah’s capacity. I have seen no actual evidence that the tens of thousands of guided missiles—not old-fashioned rockets—that Hezbollah had have been destroyed. Nor has Iran’s ability to attack Iran been degraded, only its air defense capacity. Netayanhu and the US-based chicken hawks that claim to want to protect Israel by attacking Iran are endangering Israel. Neither Hezbollah nor Iran, when they attacked Israel, unleashed anything close to their actual attack potential. They preserved their latest missiles and the are still in my view available. I hate to say it, but in my coverage of the Ukraine war, I have likewise contended that Russia has used only a small portion of its non-nuclear capacity; in recent days we are seeing some actual use of that capacity to attack civilian targets. There is not military solution. Repeat 10 times.

4/28/25: US/Iran talks move to technical phase.

4/27/25: Randy Cunningham refocuses on nuclear disarmament.

4/21/25: Given the Saudi/Iran agreement facilitated by China, it turns out that Saudi Arabia and also—per this NYTimes piece—Syria, are supportive of Trump’s efforts to resume a fairly similar “Iran deal.”

Looking back at my 2015 op-ed, with its idealistic proposal to turn the deal into a jumpstart for the very nuclear disarmament Pope Francis urged in his last sermon, I remain optimistic. Region wide normalization is something I have long urged well before 10/07/23, based of course merely my lay views and observations about the region. Now of course J Street promotes a 23-state solution. For details see this. However, these documents rarely mention Iran. Apparently, it would be a bridge too far for J Street to propose actual region-wide normalization of relations, including with Iran (and of course Yemen is another outlier.)

So, nowhere that I can see does J Street, whose views I am normally in full accord with for their realism and their principled nature, spell out exactly what those 23 states are, other than that their including the Arab League plus Palestine and Israel. For the US, and for Israel, if it does not get about the business of truly region wide possibilities for peace, including Iran and Turkey, where the recent decision of the Kurdish militants to foreswear armed struggle, the possibilities are greater, the US and Israel may be outflanked by initiatives emanating from China and even, god forbid, Russia, which is aspiring to building its own Euro-Asian security links (see the recent speech by the Russian Foreign Minister).

In my view, the Saudis, who have long themselves wanted nuclear power, could utilize the excess Iranian low-enriched uranium (LEU) as fuel for commercial nuclear power plants, research reactors, medical isotope production and desalinization. True, if you are anti-nuke altogether, this not be appealing. But as such, the oil-rich region might trade nuclear power for ironclad agreements, not to pursue nuclear weapons.

It is time for supporters of Israel and for supporters of Palestine both, as well as the US democratic left, to adopt a more flexible democratic left foreign policy, one which re-thinks past notions such as final status agreement first, normalization later. First, Normalization (with ceasefire, reconstruction of Gaza sans tunnels, and pledges for a full tunnel-less Palestinian state, with security guarantees for Israel and Palestine). Second, formation of that Palestinian state. Third, region wide security agreements including Iran, with Turkey, US, EU and China being part of the security guarantee apparatus. Russia and Yemen are the wild cards. Of course, what do I know?

4/10/25: Haaretz (gift copy) says Netanyahu’s continued interest in attacking Iran is insane, and I agree. It may be the case that some of Iran’s anti-missle and other defense abilities were degraded, but not its offensive capacity! Barbara Slavin in a Zoom last year said its offensive capacity could overwhelm Israel’s own defenses. Bibi is literally playing with fire. Yes, in those one or two limited salvos last year, the combined Israeli, US and Jordanian (and rumored Saudi) resources were able to shoot down most of the missiles and drones, but it wa a purposefully limited attack by Iran.

4/17/25: The AJC Statement is deluded. They propose to raised new issues that were never part of the original agreement, and they seem to understand that Iran’s capacities to attack Israel with conventional weapons are well developed, but continue with a policy that will not lead to a diplomatic solution.

4/17/25: This Israeli plan to bomb Iran is just insane. Thankfully, for now, Trump has called it off. Even with full US and Jordian support to repell a counter-attack, Netanyahu is failing to see that were Iran to fully utilize its full arsenal of missiles and drones against Israel, earlier reports from Iran expert Barbara Slavin convinced me that it would result in massive death and destrucion within Israel. There is no military solution.

Introduction: Just when I thought my list of “beats” was about full, several posts and news items from today have prompted me to make this post in my Beats section, which you can always find from About and from my Table of Contents. I am not new to this issue, atlhough decidedly not an expert. I approach it as a peacnik. In 2015, as the US debated entering the Iran Deal, I published Iran deal - sealing this agreement will help propel nuclear disarmament efforts worldwide in the Cleveland Plain Dealer.

Today, I appreciated Ilan Goldenberg’s narrative account of his personal and professional life. And his sharing links to two reports he was part of, this and that. I also read two peaces from the J Street Roundup about the possibility of war with Iran, including this in WAPO. All this convinced me I need a Beat on Iran and Nuclear Disarmament. Here is the bibliography: https://tinyurl.com/IranAndNuclearDisarmament

In February 2024, I published a letter in the Cleveland Jewish News which warned that Israel was a serious risk of massive death and destruction from Hezbollah and Iran, irrespective of the Houthis. Since then, the sucessful repelling of rather minor barrages from all three have lead US chicken hawks and Israeli hawks to brage they have degraded Hezbollah’s and Iran’s capacities and that Israel can protect itself, with or without US and Jordianian help, from other attacks. Barbara Slavin is the expert on this, but I see nothing more recent than this. But others I have read confirm that it is not true their missile capacity is degraded. Moreover, they have not used their best guided missiles in any quantity yet. It is my understanding they could overwhelm missing defenses. More later…